本 walkthrough 使用虚构大型消费股“公司 ABC”，示范三种披露如何回答三个不同问题。金额与日期为示意。
“未来两至四季，机构对 ABC 的持股股数是否上升（而非仅因股价上涨），且内部人交易相对过去两年是否异常？”
假设管理人 XYZ 对 ABC 股数季增 8%，同期组合对标普权重下降；市值增 12% 但股数增 8%，显示部分为加码而非仅估值上升。
季末后两周，CFO 以 10b5-1 计划代码 S 出售 15,000 股；董事以代码 P 公开市场买入 2,000 股。
通讯声称 ABC 将在 90 个交易日跑赢板块 ETF。先写清：相对 XLY、自发布日 T 起 90 日、二元命中定义。
13F：机构股数缓步增加。内部人：混合；计划出售主导头条但公开买入规模小。预测：在固定规则评分前不纳入结论。
For Company ABC, keep six fields on one page: research question; 13F share-count delta with as-of and filing dates; Form 4 table (filer, role, code, size, plan flag); forecast claim sentence; synthesis paragraph; falsifiers. If a field is empty, say “not yet observed” rather than inventing color.
Empty fields are progress. Tip culture hates blanks; education needs them. Blanks tell you which filing family you still need to open.
Ending A: next 13F shows flat share counts—institutional accumulation story weakens. Ending B: clustered non-plan open-market sales appear—insider context darkens without proving a crash. Ending C: the pundit’s 90-day claim misses versus XLY—remove that source from the thesis weight. Practice writing endings before prices arrive.
The point of alternate endings is process rehearsal, not prediction theater. You are training the muscle that updates notes when filings change.
After this walkthrough, read the workflow guide for combining disclosures, the Form 4 codes guide for code literacy, and the forecast journal template to capture media claims cleanly. Methodology explains how InsightMeter handles data and scoring at a high level.
Assign invented but consistent dates: quarter-end 31 December; 13F accepted mid-February; Form 4 transactions in early February with filings two business days later; newsletter claim published 1 March with a 90-trading-day horizon. Writing the timeline prevents the mashup error even inside a teaching story.
Have students highlight which facts were knowable on which dates. The exercise builds lag muscles faster than another definition list.
Prompt 1: rewrite the newsletter claim three ways with different benchmarks and explain how hit/miss could change. Prompt 2: replace the CFO plan sale with a non-plan sale of equal size and rewrite the insider paragraph. Prompt 3: invent an amendment that cuts the 13F share count and update synthesis.
Good answers show process changes, not price predictions. If a student ends with “so buy ABC,” the lesson failed—restart from falsifiers.
好的笔记按披露类型分开记录、标明滞后并列出反证条件。真实公司可套用我们的工作流程指南。
整合 13F、内部人与预测信号 · Building a personal forecast journal
The fictional ABC note is a scaffold. Replace ABC with a real issuer only after you can keep timestamps separate without help. If mashups return, return to this walkthrough.
Teachers and study groups may copy the binder fields freely for non-commercial education. Do not present the fictional numbers as real market facts.
Next practice: complete one real binder using only EDGAR primary sources and our glossary for vocabulary. Then decide whether any optional dashboard view is even necessary for your question.
按主题学习: Form 4／内部人素养 · Form 8-K 与基本面 · Form D／豁免发行 · 13F／机构快照